Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. have tumbled enough in the past week and long-time bearish analyst Scott Group at Wolfe Research said it was time to stop selling.
Scott raised his rating on the Texas-based air carrier to peer perform, after being at underperform for at least the past three years. He removed his stock price target, while his prior target of $14 had made him the most bearish of the 22 analysts surveyed by FactSet.
His upgrade comes after the stock
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tumbled 14.9% over the previous six sessions to close Thursday at $14.12, or just a fraction above its prior target. That compares with an 11.6% drop in the US Global Jets exchange-traded fund.
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and a 0.8% loss in the S&P 500 index
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over the same time.
On Friday, the stock slumped 2.1% in midday trading toward a 2 1/2-month low, while the Jets ETF dropped 2.3% and the S&P 500 shed 1.0%.
And despite this recent selloff, short interest, or bearish bets on the stock, remains relatively high.
,[American’s stock] remains heavily shorted with a 10% short interest, but it’s been consistently executing and making/beating estimates in recent quarters while running a fairly clean operation,” Scott wrote in a note to clients.
The company have been profitable the past three quarters, and has beat bottom-line expectations in seven of the past eight quarters.
Short interest, or the number of shares shorted, represents 9.77% of the public float, or shares available for public trading, according to the latest exchange data. That compares with 3.41% for Delta’s stock and 4.39% for United shares.
Some on Wall Street view high short interest as a bullish sign, as those who have made those bets will have buy back the stock if it starts rallying, an action referred to as short covering. The the “meme-stock” craze had involved heavily shorted stocks. Read more about how short selling works,
In addition, Scott said that while American Airlines still carries a high debt load, he believes the company will significantly reduce its debt this year given his expectation that free cash flow will exceed $2 billion in 2023.
And one reason for his previous bearish stance was that American’s margins had previously “badly and consistently” lagged that of rival Delta Air Lines Inc.
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and also “consistently lagged” that of United Airlines Holdings Inc.
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“But in recent quarters, the margin gap vs. [Delta] has clearly narrowed, while it remains choppy relative to [United]Scott wrote in a note to clients.
American Airlines stock has rallied 8.7% over the past three months, while the Jets ETF has tacked on 2.1% and the S&P 500 has gained 2.1%.
